willhappen
Transparency · open data

Don’t trust us — recompute us.

Every figure on this page is served from a public, keyless endpoint and links to it. The maker-rebate table is the real payout ledger, matched cent-for-cent to on-chain Sends. The accuracy and spread charts come from the same nightly artifacts anyone can pull. Nothing here is a marketing number.

Maker-rebate payouts

ledger.json ↗

Loading the ledger…

Model accuracy

model-accuracy ↗

Nightly estimate vs. realized mid, in basis points of error — lower is sharper.

Loading the accuracy series…

Spread p50 trend

liquidity.csv ↗

Median top-of-book spread, in cents, across the covered outcome markets.

Loading liquidity…

Incident log

plain language · resolved & open
  • 2026-07-19resolved
    Settlement watcher lag on three World-Cup markets

    A metricsd restart during the 09:00 archive pull delayed credited-PnL updates for #8130/#8131/#8200 by ~40 min. No funds were affected — only the displayed settlement timestamp trailed the on-chain event. Reconciled from the ledger on the next tick; a startup ordering fix landed the same day.

Recompute it yourself

The scoring rules and the raw data are public. Pull any of these and check our arithmetic.

Rebates are a pilot; scope, pool and parameters may change between weekly runs. The builder-volume share is an estimate until on-chain attribution lands. Published payout amounts exclude the operator’s transfer costs so the table matches the wallet to the cent. This is open data and a liquidity-rewards program — not investment advice.